This classic introduces the concepts and uses of probability theory. It demonstrates, without the use of higher mathematics, the application of probability to games of chance, physics, reliability of witnesses, astronomy, insurance, democratic government, and many other areas. It also shows how scientists can express complex ideas in simple terms.

Pierre-Simon Laplace (1749-1827) is remembered amoung probabilitists today particularly for his "Theorie analytique des probabilites", published in 1812. The "Essai philosophique dur les probabilites" is his introduction for the second edition of this work. Here Laplace provided a popular exposition on his "Theorie". The "Essai", based on a lecture on probability given by Lapla...(展开全部)

布莱恩·奥康纳（Brian O’Connor），当代社会哲学家，爱尔兰都柏林大学学院哲学教授，毕业于牛津大学哲学系，曾在剑桥大学做过访问学者，著有《德国唯心主义选集与导读》《闲散的哲学》《阿多诺与消极辩证法》

斯坦利·罗森（1929-2014），美国波士顿大学荣休教授，著名哲学家。师从施特劳斯和科耶夫，其关注点为哲学的基本问题，以及哲学史上从柏拉图到海德格尔等里程碑式的人物。主要代表作有：《柏拉图的<会饮>》、《虚无主义：哲学反思》、《柏拉图<理想国>新解》、《启蒙的面具：读<查拉图斯特拉如是说>》、《存在之问：颠转海德格尔》、《诗与哲学之争》等。 译者马津，中山大学国际翻译学院讲师。分别于2000年、2005年和2012年获得中山大学外国语学院英语语言文学专业学士、硕士和博士学位，2011年获得法国让∙莫兰里昂第三大学跨文化研究博士学位。研究方向为当代西方批评理论和跨文化研究。

This book is designed to explain the technical ideas that are taken for granted in much contemporary philosophical writing. Notions like "denumerability," "modal scope distinction," "Bayesian conditionalization," and "logical completeness" are usually only elucidated deep within difficult specialist texts. By offering simple explanations that by-pass much irrelevant and boring ...(展开全部)

This book is designed to explain the technical ideas that are taken for granted in much contemporary philosophical writing. Notions like "denumerability," "modal scope distinction," "Bayesian conditionalization," and "logical completeness" are usually only elucidated deep within difficult specialist texts. By offering simple explanations that by-pass much irrelevant and boring ...(展开全部)

In this timely new book, a distinguished intellectual historian offers us cogent and persuasive responses to these urgent topical questions: What are the prospects for the European Union? If they are not wholly rosy, why is that? And, in any event, how much does it matter whether a united Europe does or does not come about, on whatever terms?

"I am enthusiastically European; no informed person could seriously wish to return to the embattled, mutually antagonistic circle of suspicious and introverted nations that was the European continent in the quite recent past. But it is one thing to think an outcome desirable, quite another to suppose it is possible. It is my contention that a truly united Europe is sufficiently...(展开全部)